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Monday, October 28, 2013

The Fan Drifter's NBA Preview

In case you didn't know, today is our last day without basketball until mid-July.  What a glorious, glorious feeling.

This NBA season is shaping up to be the most intriguing in league history with so many teams that have a legitimate shot a championship, and just as many who are trying to bottom out to try and get a piece of Andrew Wiggins & Company.

If you missed it, I wrote about my current NBA fan drifter status - and since I have no team to root for, here are some storylines and things to watch out for this season.

Can somebody finally beat the Heat this year?

In short, yes.  This is the most wide open the NBA has been in a really long time, and quite possible ever.  Five or six teams could legitimately win the West, and the same holds true in the East.  

The Heat had to scrap and claw their way back against the Pacers to even make the Finals last year, and won the title because of a couple minor miracles - Ray Allen's corner three and Tim Duncan missing TWO chip shots over Shane Battier (I'm pretty sure that's the only time in Timmy's life he's missed those shots).

For them to three-peat, Miami's going to have to make the Finals in four consecutive years, something that hasn't been done since the Celtics won 11 titles in 13 years in the 50's and 60's.

The East is loaded with teams who are designed to beat them and got better in the offseason, plus Derrick Rose is back.  The fact that the Bulls-Heat, which is quietly becoming the most awesome rivalry in the sports, kicks off the season tomorrow night is absolutely perfect.

Tankapalooza is going to be just as much fun as watching teams compete for the playoffs

Everyone wants Wiggins!
A majority of NBA front offices have adopted a boom-or-bust strategy - either have a team that can compete for a championship, or totally blow it up to try and rebuild a contender.  It's actually very smart (there's no real reason to play for a 7-seed every year and never make it out of the first round, Milwaukee), and has created a bipolar atmosphere in the league.

The NBA tried to discourage tanking by implementing a lottery system to determine first round drafting order, but that hasn't really worked.  Teams are full out COMMITTING to losing as many games as possible, trying to get one of the 5 to 10 franchise-saving players in this draft class.

The Sixers basically told their top draft pick not to play this season and their coach said they only have 6 NBA-caliber players on their roster.  The Suns just traded their second-best player away for someone who has a herniated disk in his neck.  The mighty Celtics let almost every staple and good thing about their franchise go (But they did get Brad Stevens, dark horse coach of the year candidate.  No one does more with less!!).  Utah let their top two players leave in free agency.  Orlando is just plain terrible.  And the Kings and the Bobcats/Unborn Hornets are, well, the Kings and the Bobcats.

Watching this many teams fight to lose is going to be so terrible, but so entertaining.

Kobe and KD's Ultimate Eff-You Seasons

This is going to develop as the season progresses.  Kobe is the most competitive person in the league and is stuck on this we-suck-but-can't-tank-cuz-we're-the-Lakers-so-let's-fight-for-an-8-seed Lakers.  Their ownership now sucks, his coach is terrible, and the players around him are old, slow, or boneheads (that last one is for you, Nick Young).  It's going to get to a point where Kobe won't want to pass because he's absolutely pissed at everyone (hence the Eff-You season) and is going to try and score 81 every night because he's Kobe Bean Bryant.

KD's Eff-You season is directed at management.  A year ago Oklahoma City was known for having the best young talent and smartest front office in the league.  Now their known as the team that traded James Harden, Durant's best friend and currently the best shooting guard in the league.  

No one else on the Thunder can score other than Westbrook, who will be out for the first part of the season.  His team is woefully undermanned and undertalented.  This makes Kevin angry. What does Kevin do when he's angry? Score 35 to 40 a night, dunk on people's heads, never high five a teammate other than Westbrook, and never smile.  He'll be a peeved superman whose team loses in the second round of the playoffs and everyone is OKC (including their we're-too-smart-for-our-own-good management) gets scared because they have to keep the best player they will every have and surround him with actually competent basketball players.  #KDisnotnice

Will Dwight make the Rockets a contender?

Yes.  Houston now has two of the top-10 players in the league and what should be a lethal inside-outside combination.  However, they still have a lot to work out.

Last year the Rockets were the most fast-paced team in the league, but having a post presence like Dwight Howard should cause them to slow things down a bit.  It'll take time for head coach Kevin McHale to come up with a system that'll work for them and for the players to develop chemistry on the court, but in the end, talent usually finds a way to do well.

Can the Clippers really win the West?

Something stops me from saying yes, but that's just because it's the Clippers we're talking about.  But they have everything you want in a team - the top point guard in the league (Chris Paul), an All-Star forward (Blake Griffin), defense, shooting, and one of the league's best coaches with championship pedigree (Doc Rivers).  

The West is loaded this year with six teams that are all an pretty equal playing ground, so coming out on top will require a little luck and success in close games.  LA has one of the leagues top clutch players in Paul, and he has the ability to turn a series.  The Clippers have all the pieces to get hot and make a run to the Finals.



The Official Fan Drifter Power Rankings
These are not rankings of the best teams, but of teams a fan drifter can get behind and root for or against for various reasons, and they will be updated throughout the season.

5) Philadelphia
Pretty sure their team huddles will start with stuff like "What are you doing trying to score points?" and end with stuff like "Remember not to try too hard guys!"
4) Los Angeles Clippers
Because dunking and watching Chris Paul take over are fun to watch.
3) Chicago
The ultimate "We Hate the Heat" team with the ultimate "I Hate LeBron" player.
2) Golden State
Hard not to get behind Preacher Mark and the Splash Brothers (that sounds a lot like an 80's rock group, doesn't it?).  As long as Stephen Curry is doing his thing and being the most exciting player in basketball, I'm going to watch.

1) Charlotte Unborn Hornets
The Bobcats need to lose so the Hornets can better.  I will 100% be cheering my hardest for whoever they are playing.  #hornetpride
Honorable Mentions: Detroit, Washington - will these guys actually be good?

Season Predictions

Western Conference
1) Los Angeles Clippers
2) Oklahoma City
3) Houston
4) San Antonio
5) Golden State
6) Memphis
7) Minnesota
8) Denver____________
9) New Orleans
10) Portland
11) Dallas
12) Los Angeles Lakers
13) Sacramento
14) Utah
15) Phoenix

Playoffs
Clippers over Nuggets
Thunder over Wolves
Rockets over Grizzlies
Warriors over Spurs

Clippers over Warriors
Rockets over Thunder

Clippers over Rockets

Eastern Conference
1) Miami
2) Chicago
3) Indiana
4) Brooklyn
5) New York
6) Cleveland
7) Washington
8) Detroit_____________
9) Toronto
10) Milwaukee
11) Atlanta
12) Boston
13) Charlotte
14) Orlando
15) Philadelphia

Playoffs
Heat over Pistons
Bulls over Wizards
Cavs over Pacers
Nets over Knicks

Heat over Nets
Bulls over Cavs

Bulls over Heat

Finals
Clippers over Bulls in 7

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