Bold Predictions for the NFL Season

Thursday night's Broncos-Ravens game kicked off the 2013 NFL season, and it did so in grand fashion.  Peyton Manning reminded everyone that he's one of the best ever, and it became blatantly obviously the Ravens will in fact miss everyone they lost in the offseason.

Sean Payton is back, RGIII is in fact playing week 1, and this is finally going to be the year your team pulls through and competes for a Super Bowl - unguided optimism tends to be the most infectious in the first 2 weeks of the season.

As another exciting NFL season gets into full affect, I'm here to give you some insight on what the upcoming year will hold, as well as my playoff picks.

People will realize Joe Flacco isn't worth his huge contract

In case you missed it, the Baltimore Ravens signed their quarterback to an NFL-record 6 year, $120.6 million contract.  That's more than Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, anybody.  So in order to live up to his contract, he's going to have to play like the best quarterback in the league (or at least one of the best).  But that's just not going to happen.

In winning the Super Bowl last season, Flacco had one of the greatest postseasons in NFL history.  While that is a good sign, that's still just four games - and he doesn't have the nickname Joe Flaccid for nothing.  The guy accounted for the two worst quarterback ratings in the NFL last season, and was flirting with the amazingly terrible Rex Grossman for the worst in NFL history.

However, the Ravens made things tougher on him this year, too, and that may be the biggest reason for his struggles.  His best receiver is no longer with the team and his starting tight end is hurt, so now his starting receiving core consists of a secondary receiver in Torrey Smith, an undrafted rookie, and a tight end who was retired a month ago.  Not very good when you're trying to turn an average NFL quarterback into a superstar.

You think Joe Flacco is more than average? In 2012, he threw for 3,817 yards and 22 touchdowns.  Peyton Manning had 4,659 and 37.  Tom Brady? 4,827 and 34.  Eli Manning? 3,948 and 26. Cam Newton? 3,869 and 19.  Josh Freeman, you know, the guy in danger of losing his job in Tampa? 4,065 and 27.

Lets just pump the brakes a little bit.  He had a fantastic postseason and now he's a Super Bowl champion, but those four games are more likely to be outliers than to be his new norm.

*Side rant* - Can we PLEASE stop with this whole 'our quarterback needs a new contract so lets pay him more than anyone ever' thing? Does anyone really believe Flacco is better than two of the best to ever do it in Peyton and Brady? And the Falcons are probably going to pay Matt Ryan more than Flacco's contract because he's the next competent guy up.  Drew Brees, who is the Saints whole team essentially, makes about $20 mil a year.  What if Baltimore pay Flacco 16 mil a year and Ryan gets about the same? What's wrong with that 6 year, $96 million contract - especially when that might be the most you're worth?

The Ravens won't make the playoffs

The Ravens will struggle without
Ray Lewis and others

So along with all those guys I mentioned above, Ed Reed is gone, Ray Lewis is gone, Cary Williams is gone, Bernard Pollard is gone, Dannell Ellerbe is gone, Paul Kruger is gone, and Matt Birk is gone.  Some are being replaced by veterans and some are being replaced by rookies, but Baltimore basically has a whole new defensive unit.  Even if unit becomes one of the league's best, it's going to take some time.

The offense only has two weapons with Ray Rice and Torrey Smith's deep routes, so scoring points might be tough to come by at times.  Not to mention a very competitive division where they'll be fighting with Pittsburgh for second, I don't think they'll be able to win enough games to get a wild card spot.  Speaking of that division...

Richardson has emerged as a star
in Cleveland

The Browns will actually be kind of good

And by kind of good I mean 8-8ish.  Last year Cleveland went 5-11, but 7 of those 11 losses were by 10 points or less (and 3 of them were the last 3 games of the year, when it was clear the Browns weren't making the playoffs).

Their defense has improved, and running back Trent Richardson is a workhorse who can carry the team.  The only question mark surrounding them is quarterback Brandon Weeden who is going have to improve from his rookie season and cut down on his turnovers.  But Cleveland is making strides in the right direction, and don't be surprised to see them pull out a few upsets this season.

Adrian Peterson will be the closest 2,000 yard rusher to get back to 2,000 yards

Peterson is hoping to have
a historic 2013 season

Peterson became the 7th running back in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in 2012, and he was only 9 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson's all-time record.  AP has said he wants to rush for 2,500 yards this year, which is probably unattainable since it would be almost 400 yards more than anyone else ever, and no one has run for 2,000 yards in consecutive seasons.

The most anyone has ever gotten the year after running for 2K is Barry Sanders, who got 1,491.  Why can Peterson do better than that?  Well for one, he was coming off a torn ACL last year and played half the season with a sports hernia.  Considering he started the season healthy, I think we can expect big things from him.

The only bad thing is that he's the Vikings whole team.  That may work for him, but with no threat of a passing game, opponents can load the box with 8 or 9 guys to try and stop him - the key word being try, because you can't really stop AP.  At least no one's been able to yet.

Peyton Manning will have a better season than 2007 Tommy Terrific

Even in Denver, Peyton Manning
is still Peyton Manning

Tom Brady threw for 4,806 yards and an NFL record 50 touchdowns in 2007 when his Patriots went 18-0 before losing the Super Bowl to the Giants.  The Broncos have a ton of weapons for Manning to use, and as he showed on Thursday night, he knows how to use them.

This passing attack might the most prolific of all time - you have three All-Pro receivers, two athletic and sure-handed tight ends, and the smartest quarterback of all time decided which one he wants to throw to.  Peyton Manning has become Peyton Manning by reading defenses at the line of scrimmage and knowing who is going to be open before he snaps it, and when a star gets the ball on every play, your offense is going to be successful.

Andrew Luck will remind people why he was the No. 1 pick last year

Luck had a lot to celebrate in 2012

With all the hoopla surrounding Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson last season, it was pretty easy to forget about Luck taking a 2-14 team and leading them to a 11-5 season and a playoff berth.  He threw for 4,374 yards and 23 touchdowns as a rookie and led SEVEN 4th quarter comebacks.

Luck will have to improve on his 18 interceptions and 54% completion percentage from a year ago, but a lot of that was the Colts having to rely so heavily on him.  All of his young weapons (plus his best one - ageless wonder Reggie Wayne) are back and should be better in head coach Chuck Pagano's second season.  I think you'll see lots of improvement from Luck while Griffin and Wilson will likely have seasons similar to what they did in 2012.

E.J. Manuel will do better than you think he will

E.J. Manuel will surprise people

Everyone moaned and groaned and was shocked when the Buffalo Bills picked the Florida State product 16th overall, and quite frankly I was surprised, too.  He was a guy who I thought would be a steal in the third round and would end up starting for a team if he got put on the right team, but 16th was way too high.  But no matter if you get picked two rounds before you're supposed to, you're going to be good if you're going to be good.

Manuel landed on a team with a need for a starting quarterback, a great running game led by C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, he has a premier weapon in wideout Stevie Johnson, and the Bills have an above average defense.  He won't have to carry the load before he's ready, which allows Buffalo to bring him along at the pace they want and get him some good game experience.  I don't think Manuel will turn into All-Pro, but he will develop into a good, reliable above average starter, along the lines of a better Matt Schaub.

No one will watch the Jaguars - but not because they're that bad (which they are) but because no one can stand to look at their jerseys without wanting to scratch their eyes out

.....I think this is pretty self-explanatory.

Playoff Predictions

AFC West: Denver

AFC East: New England

AFC North: Cincinnati

AFC South: Houston

Wild Card 1: Indianapolis

Wild Card 2: Pittsburgh

NFC North: Green Bay

NFC West: San Francisco

NFC South: Atlanta

NFC East: Washington

Wild Card 1: Seattle

Wild Card 2: New Orleans

Super Bowl: Denver over Atlanta

Don't like it? Have other suggestions? Did I miss something? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below.